Model demand by clinical need, not observed utilization
HRSA counts how many visits people do use today. We switch to how many visits they should use per clinical guidelines. Primary care demand rises ~2.5×, behavioral health ~4×.
LAYER 2 + LAYER 3 SANDBOX
Layer 2 + Layer 3 sandbox
Stack up to 14 extension knobs on top of HRSA's baseline and see the gap + financial impact re-compute live. Every default is backed by a literature citation — hover any knob for the source. Methodology →
2035 HRSA gap
-52,430
2035 your scenario gap
-52,430
2035 health-system P&L
−$17.5B
per year, in 2023 USD
2035 GDP drag
−$119.7B
per year, in 2023 USD
HRSA counts how many visits people do use today. We switch to how many visits they should use per clinical guidelines. Primary care demand rises ~2.5×, behavioral health ~4×.
Override HRSA's locked-in BRFSS disease-prevalence growth. Useful for obesity, Alzheimer's, CKD, diabetes, and GLP-1 effects.
Classic Roemer's Law: when care is easier to get, people use more of it. We model the effect on demand as a share of imagined supply expansion.
AI triage chatbots, async messaging, and virtual visits lower the friction of seeing a doctor → more visits demanded.
HRSA uses the Census middle series (78M Americans 65+ by 2035). Census also publishes low (75M) and high (81M) scenarios that differ by fertility, mortality, and immigration.
Medicaid unwinding, ACA subsidy expiration, or Medicare-for-All shift how many Americans can afford to seek care. Insured people use ~50% more ambulatory care than uninsured.