HRSA counts how many visits people do use today. We switch to how many visits they should use per clinical guidelines. Primary care demand rises ~2.5×, behavioral health ~4×.

Override HRSA's locked-in BRFSS disease-prevalence growth. Useful for obesity, Alzheimer's, CKD, diabetes, and GLP-1 effects.

Classic Roemer's Law: when care is easier to get, people use more of it. We model the effect on demand as a share of imagined supply expansion.

AI triage chatbots, async messaging, and virtual visits lower the friction of seeing a doctor → more visits demanded.

HRSA uses the Census middle series (78M Americans 65+ by 2035). Census also publishes low (75M) and high (81M) scenarios that differ by fertility, mortality, and immigration.

Medicaid unwinding, ACA subsidy expiration, or Medicare-for-All shift how many Americans can afford to seek care. Insured people use ~50% more ambulatory care than uninsured.